Hello, Michael--

I've found that many people who are going after the dream of being elite are very aware that much is out of their control. They know that much of it is up to dumb luck or up to 'who you know'. They aren't actually ignorant of that harsh reality. Yet they choose to pursue that goal anyway. They simply work on the things they can control.

Also, of the people I know who 'worked their butts off' to be elites, but then failed to get the elite position, they don't regret it. In the process of working their butts off, they became stronger/better, and they typically discovered other paths of success. They end up being and feeling successful even tho they don't end up in the elite position. For example, during the process of pursuing my elite position, I ended up working for an employer who ended up wanting to hire me for an interesting position that I would never have considered if I hadn't been working the temp job at his business. If I hadn't gotten the elite position, I would have ended up just fine. A person who trains to be an NFL player may not make it to the NFL as a player but in the process may have, for example, discovered a passion for weightlifting and ends up owning a gym and being a high-level powerlifter. Or end up being a WWE wrestler:)

I hear what you're saying about survivorship bias. But I think it also behooves us to not get caught up in a fearful mindset such as "I fear I won't be lucky" or "I fear I won't succeed" so that our fears cause us to not even try.